Variable vs. Fixed Rate Mortgages: An email correspondence

Subject: So You’re an Economics Kinda guy…

Boba Fett <bfett@slave1.com> Sun, Sep 24, 2017 at 5:37 PM
To: Mr CIQY <me@caniquityet.com>

hey man,

Mrs. Fett and I were talking mortgage after the Bank of Canada raised rates, and realized we don’t really know squat.  and we thought, who does know squat? and the answer was: maybe Mr. CIQY?
As one of a very few economics minded friends, wondering if you had any thoughts regarding rate increases and fixed mortgages?

Mr. CIQY <me@caniquityet.com> Mon, Sep 25, 2017 at 7:37 AM
To: Boba Fett <bfett@slave1.com>

Oh I have thoughts on a lot of things. Doesn’t always mean they’re right though.

I guess it depends on a lot of factors. Are you asking because you guys currently have a variable rate and you’re debating whether/when to lock in to a fixed? If that’s the case, then it kind of depends on the spread. We’re in that situation now ourselves. Last time I checked, for us the spread was 0.55%. So in our example, that basically represents two more rate hikes, or close enough. meaning that in two more rate hikes, assuming our lender passes both those hikes along to us, we will be paying the same rate as if we locked in to the fixed rate now. There’s a school of thought that says you’re better off going with the variable because in the interim, you’re still paying less interest. Which makes sense to me. Of course, then it becomes a question of when the hypothetical third rate hike will be, at which point you’re worse off than if you acted today. But again, you will have paid less interest in the interim.

Some people really like certainty and knowing exactly how much they’ll be paying for X years and if that’s you, then going fixed might make sense. But in most cases you’ll end up paying more interest by going fixed.

What specifically were you guys wondering about or wanting to know?
 

Boba Fett <bfett@slave1.com> Mon, Sep 25, 2017 at 8:48 AM
To: Mr. CIQY <me@caniquityet.com>

Brother, you nailed it in one.

Effectively, we’re going through the variable–>fixed should-we? talk based on essentially the numbers you’ve got there; around a .5% difference.  So, as you say, we’re looking at a likely 2-hike equivalence in the rates.
Mrs. Fett’s read that the rates could go up as much at 1%, in which case, locking in a fixed rate now would make sense.  But she’s also read that a hike like that would put a bunch of people out of their homes because people think a mortgage is a free house from the bank.
Based on your reply, can i assume you guys will remain variable?  We’re trending in thinking that way, but hoping we won’t regret it if the rate keeps climbing.
sigh.  I remember when finance talks were “should i get that comic book, or the creamsicle”.  Thanks for the thoughts (right or wrong) – it’s good to hear.
 

Mr. CIQY <me@caniquityet.com> Mon, Sep 25, 2017 at 9:14 AM
To: Boba Fett <bfett@slave1.com>
Well for us, we’ve got 3 more years left before we get to renew our mortgage. Our strategy has been and continues to be a) make minimum payments; b) save as much as we can and invest in TFSAs, hoping to earn some nice returns; c) on the eve of mortgage renewal, make a lump sum payment from our savings and investment income to the mortgage principal to try and get our monthly minimums lower for years 6-10. Trying to predict what will happen to the economy is a mugs game and if I knew how to do it properly… well let’s just say I don’t.

That said, there are reasons to believe that interest rates might not continue to climb uninterrupted over the next few years. For starters, inflation just isn’t that high yet, which suggests maybe more rate hikes might not be a sure thing. Secondly, all it takes is for another recession to hit and then we’re definitely not likely to see rates climb higher. And recessions tend to happen every so often for all sorts of reasons. It’s possible we’re about due for one soon. Looking for reasons why? I dunno… an end to NAFTA? Other major catastrophe? Start of a new war? Another big drop in oil prices? A strong Canadian dollar that crowds out manufacturing exports? A major housing collapse due to rising interest rates (irony!)?

Or who knows? Maybe we’re at the start of a historic economic boom? I’ve been wrong about lots of things before. Anyway, we’re going to stay variable for now I think. But check back with me in a year when I’m paying 5% on my mortgage and kicking myself for not locking in.

[


Boba Fett <bfett@slave1.com> Mon, Sep 25, 2017 at 10:42 AM
To: Mr. CIQY <me@caniquityet.com>

Thanks for the sanity check – i think we’re largely in the same boat, but your one-time lump sum payment makes way more sense.  We have the opportunity to pay down the principal via acceleration, but it would make more sense to invest those payments and then use the resulting interest as well.  See, you’re the economic guy for sure.  Also, thanks for the context – it’s easy to freak the f out when you hear “rate increase” but what you say also makes sense.  and some of that context is TERRIFYING.

Thanks again homes!
 

Mr. CIQY <me@caniquityet.com> Wed, Sep 27, 2017 at 10:55 AM
To: Boba Fett <bfett@slave1.com>

Hey, so uh, I started a blog a little while ago, and it’s about personal finance, frugality, etc.

I was wondering if you would mind if I mined this email thread and made a blog post out of it? I would be obfuscating your identity as well, but I kinda thought an email exchange about fixed vs variable mortgages might be a semi-interesting way to address a topic that fits within my blog’s subject matter.

Would you mind if I published this exchange, lightly edited with all identifying information scrubbed? I’ll even let you pick your alias, if that appeals to you. 😉

 

Boba Fett <bfett@slave1.com> Thu, Sep 28, 2017 at 8:01 AM
To: Mr. CIQY <me@caniquityet.com>
Yeah, absolutely, go nuts!
As for aliases, is in like the Dear Abby write-ins?  “Worried in Weston” or “Scared in Scarborough”?  or just a name? In which case, can i get ‘Boba Fett’?
 

Mr. CIQY <me@caniquityet.com> Thu, Sep 28, 2017 at 8:14 AM
To: Boba Fett <bfett@slave1.com>
You can get whatever you want. Boba Fett is a good choice.

Real Estate vs Investing Pt 1: The S&P 500 doesn’t complain about pigeon poop

Mrs. CIQY has accused me of being “verbose” before. She’s probably right, but it’s who I am. So I decided to break this post in two, just to keep the length reasonable and palatable. Part 2 is here.

As I said before, i was brought up thinking real estate was king. My parents, because of their experiences, always seemed to use it as a measure of wealth. There were always stories of wealthy past acquaintances of the form of “he was so rich he owned 5 houses!” or “he had enough money to buy apartment BUILDINGS! Not just apartments, but apartment BUILDINGS!” There were also attempts at imparted wisdom in the form of lamentations like “If I had someone to show me the way when I was young and single and earning decent money, someone to tell me to start buying rental properties…” I think the implication was always meant to be that we would be sitting pretty, my parents would have retired early, and my siblings and I would have been proper spoiled, rich kids who could live their lives on easy street, never having known struggle.

I completely understand their thinking. My parents bought their first house in the 1970s. I’m guessing they probably paid something in the neighbourhood of about $15,000-$20,000 for it. (Mind you their mortgage rate on that house was also probably about 15%.) Within a generation the value of that house and others like it had increased about 10x. Meanwhile they also got to take advantage of high wages at the time; wages that have since stagnated in real terms. So if they had saved more, maybe they could have paid their mortgage off much faster and bought a second property to rent, and then a third, etc. etc.

And why not? Being a landlord was easy money, right? Instead of slaving away at a job for 8 hours a day you just showed up once a month to collect rent. Sure, once in a while you had to fix something that broke, but most of the time, ideally things were on autopilot.

At the same time, my parents didn’t know anybody who was rich from investing. Stocks and bonds were things that super wealthy (and usually villainous) people in the movies bought and sold. “Normal” rich people in their experience got that way either through inheritance or property. Or both.

By the time the 1990s rolled around and the masses started migrating online, investing became much easier with online banking and brokerages. My parents started having conversations with friends who actually did dabble in investing and eventually decided that they also wanted to dip their toes in that pool. Other people were making money, so why not them? They were at a stage in life where they felt they maybe had a little money they could afford to use for investment purposes. They signed up for an online brokerage and started buying small amounts of a few stocks.

It did not go well for them. Lesson learned: investing is for idiots. Or very clever people who knew what they were doing and had time to do their research and due diligence. I.e. not them.

This basically confirmed what they already believed, and that was that the best investment is real estate. They don’t say “safe as houses” for nothing.

I am not my parents. My experiences have been a little different. Let me tell you my story…

When I first moved to the city for my current job, I rented. In fact, I rented a furnished apartment that was a five minute walk from work. It was about as turnkey as can be. It was glorious too… I would roll out of bed, shower, have breakfast, and be at work in five minutes. Reliable and traffic proof. But I digress.

After a couple of years, my little studio apartment started to feel… well, little. I wanted more space and I wanted to have my own stuff. After looking at some other rental options, I did some math and figured out that I could actually afford to buy my own place instead. Instead of “throwing away” money on rent, I could “pay myself” by getting a mortgage and building equity. I spent a good amount searching and eventually found myself a condo that was walking distance to work, cheap to maintain, and well within my budget. I was pleased as punch with my purchase.

And then I met the future Mrs. CIQY, and things changed. As I mentioned in a previous post she and I worked and lived in different cities. When it came time to cohabit, we decided to compromise and get a place in the ‘burbs in between where we each used to live. At first, we decided to rent, for a number of reasons. I kept my condo, and rented it out, and we rented a place of our own in the ‘burbs. The rent I was collecting for my condo was the same as the rent we were paying for our new home, so things worked out reasonably okay. The plan was, when it came time to buy a place of our own, we would sell my condo and use the money to buy a house. In the meantime, while we weren’t earning any income on the rental, we were building equity that we could use for our future house. And this is pretty much what happened.

Sounds easy right? Smooth and simple right? Well, it wasn’t.

During the time I was a landlord, I had to fix a broken washing machine. I had to make three separate trips to the rental (which remember, was in a different city) to deal with a faulty heat/ hot water boiler and have it replaced. I had to miss work while I waited for service calls. I had to compensate my tenant who couldn’t have a hot shower in the dead of winter after working outside all day. I had to deal with complaints about pigeon poop. Yes, pigeon poop. And that all happened in less than a year. And that’s not to mention the cost to me to paint the entire place before the tenant even moved in because I was having trouble getting it rented. When it eventually came time to sell the condo, I had to deal with inquiries and concerns about Kitec plumbing, which caused the property to take a lot longer to sell than it should have (btw, do NOT buy a condo with Kitec plumbing).

(I just want to pause for a moment and say that my tenant was actually a very good tenant. He was perfectly reasonable, dependable, and an all around decent guy. I definitely don’t mean to suggest otherwise.)

In addition to all that, it just wasn’t a good investment for me, because the rent I was receiving wasn’t enough to cover the mortgage payments plus taxes and fees. Keeping the condo was costing me money.

Despite all this, we actually did still consider keeping the condo after buying our own place, for the sake of the equity we were getting from it. We thought about the fact that we could potentially raise the rent a bit over time so that renting it was at least covering all its costs. But in the end we decided we would rather use the equity we had built up as a better down payment for our own house, to keep our mortgage payments lower. We figured there were better investment options out there that would give us better return. And the condo had turned out to be more work than we were hoping for.

The S&P 500 does not complain about pigeon poop.

In Part 2, I will highlight some of the benefits I see with investing. Hope to see you there!